Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

//Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | Simplifying The Market

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Risk, believes we are already in a recession:

“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”

How deep will it go?

No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachs anticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | Simplifying The MarketGoldman also projects we’ll have “further strong gains in early 2021.”

This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:

“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”

Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.

*Quarter 1 data from Goldman Sachs was updated from 0% to -0.2% on 3/17/20 after the initial release.

Bottom Line

This virus is not only impacting the physical health of Americans, but also the financial health of the nation. The sooner we beat it, the sooner our lives will return to normal.

By | 2020-03-23T03:00:24-07:00 March 23rd, 2020|blog|Comments Off on Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

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Jeff and Jane Daley started their careers in real estate after taking early retirement from the corporate world. They enjoy partnering with clients to meet their goals in real estate. Their success in getting it done right for their clients is their belief in education. University and formal real estate courses have been imperative in staying up to date for the benefit of their clients and their business. The Daley's started in real estate in 1999 and have helped hundreds of clients buy or sell their homes successfully. Their fiduciary responsibility to their clients is always a top priority. MILITARY SERVICE: Jeff is a U.S. Army combat veteran and served with distinction in Vietnam. Jeff and Jane Daley located their business in Scottsdale, Arizona. Their team also serves the adjacent communities of Carefree, Cave Creek, Chandler, Glendale, Mesa, Paradise Valley, Phoenix. Jeff is also available as a media resource for interviews and/or articles.
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